Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $13.1K·Volume $15·Ends Nov 13, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
55% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.5pp
model above price
Consensus
79%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
55%price55%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$220 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$290
72h +$290
Smart money entered54¢55¢at 16:59(18% priced in)Edge left+0.5ppLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 13, 2026)Liquidity$13.1K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Down", with $220 riding on it.
The price of 55% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 54¢; the price was 55¢ at this snapshot — roughly 18% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $220 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$290, +$290 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 16:59
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Up | 72¢ | $4 |
| 1h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 70¢ | $18 |
| 1h ago | BoneOhioTop | Buy | Down | 66¢ | $3 |
| 1h ago | BoneOhioTop | Buy | Down | 66¢ | $3 |
| 1h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 53¢ | $19 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 43¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 43¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 59¢ | $21 |
| 1h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 41¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 41¢ | $11 |
| 1h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 41¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 43¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 43¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 46¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 46¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 54¢ | $3 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 62¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 61¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 62¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 46¢ | $2 |
| 1h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 30¢ | $11 |
| 1h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 30¢ | $11 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 58¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 61¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 58¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 61¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 25¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 25¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 66¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 66¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 66¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 66¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 61¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 61¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 61¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 61¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 63¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 63¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 63¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 63¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 62¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 59¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 62¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0x844f…6fccMid | Buy | Down | 59¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 33¢ | $12 |
| 1h ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 33¢ | $12 |
| 1h ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 34¢ | $2 |