Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
ActiveLiquidity $12.8K·Volume $0·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Up0%Down100%
Smart money leans
Down
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,219
Smart money entered96¢100¢at 05:09(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$12.8K
Explanation
6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Down", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,219 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:09
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $90 |
| 2d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $90 |
| 2d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $87 |
| 2d ago | 0x440b…6570Mid | Buy | Down | 100¢ | $87 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 97¢ | $18 |
| 2d ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 2.6¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 98¢ | $15 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 95¢ | $10 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 97¢ | $20 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $25 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 95¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 93¢ | $23 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 95¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 92¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 95¢ | $23 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 94¢ | $23 |
| 2d ago | NIULAI4Mid | Buy | Down | 93¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 78¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 62¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 61¢ | $22 |
| 2d ago | Einst8224Top | Buy | Up | 31¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 94¢ | $142 |
| 2d ago | 0xbe53…1707Mid | Buy | Down | 94¢ | $142 |
| 2d ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 97¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 97¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | 0xebb2…63edMid | Buy | Down | 96¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Up | 14¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Up | 23¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | BoneOhioTop | Buy | Down | 76¢ | $19 |
| 2d ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 67¢ | $7 |
| 2d ago | 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530Top | Buy | Down | 66¢ | $17 |
| 2d ago | Anon-0xCEMid | Buy | Down | 60¢ | $3 |