Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 15?
ActiveLiquidity $6,832·Volume $160·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$8,026 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$8,031
72h +$8,031
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 07:58(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5h agoResolvesin 8h 1m(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$6,832
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $8,026 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $8,026 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$8,031, +$8,031 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:58
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 3h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.1¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 4h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.1¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 5h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | 0xb26f…5b27Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $4 |
| 6h ago | 0xdeb2…9aa8Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $31 |
| 6h ago | 0xb26f…5b27Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $1,875 |
| 6h ago | 0xb26f…5b27Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $2,997 |
| 6h ago | 0xb26f…5b27Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $123 |
| 16h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 16h ago | 0xdeb2…9aa8Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $916 |
| 16h ago | 0xdeb2…9aa8Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $999 |
| 17h ago | 0xdeb2…9aa8Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $999 |
| 17h ago | 0xdeb2…9aa8Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $83 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $2 |