Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 15?
ActiveLiquidity $6,676·Volume $15·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$14.8K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$15.2K
72h +$15.2K
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 07:59(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy14h agoResolvesin 8h 1m(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$6,676
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $14.8K riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$15.2K, +$15.2K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:59
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.1¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | 0xb26f…5b27Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.1¢ | $1 |
| 5h ago | 0xb26f…5b27Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.1¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 5h ago | 0xb26f…5b27Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $499 |
| 5h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 6h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 7h ago | 0xb26f…5b27Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 7h ago | Ja888Mid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 7h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 7h ago | Ja888Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 7h ago | Ja888Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 7h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.1¢ | $0 |
| 8h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 14h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 14h ago | 0xf990…5530Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5,179 |
| 14h ago | 0xf0c0…9ccbMid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5,383 |
| 14h ago | 0xf990…5530Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $303 |
| 14h ago | 0xf990…5530Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $303 |
| 14h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 14h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 14h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 14h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $0 |
| 15h ago | Sharky6999Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $989 |
| 15h ago | Sharky6999Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $990 |
| 15h ago | Sharky6999Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $991 |
| 15h ago | Sharky6999Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $991 |
| 15h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 15h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 15h ago | 0xb26f…5b27Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $499 |
| 15h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 15h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 15h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 15h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 15h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 15h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 15h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 15h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $0 |
| 16h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 16h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 16h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 16h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $0 |
| 17h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 17h ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | 0x5e8e…8212Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |