Matsuyama: Rio Noguchi vs Daniel Michalski
ActiveLiquidity $3,185·Volume $364·Ends Nov 16, 2026
Price now:Rio Noguchi100%Daniel Michalski0%
Smart money leans
Rio Noguchi
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$4,062
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 05:12(0% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 3d(Nov 16, 2026)Liquidity$3,185
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Rio Noguchi", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$4,062 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:12
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $26 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $26 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $246 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $246 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $9 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $131 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $9 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $131 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $168 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $168 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $41 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $41 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $100 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $100 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $329 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $115 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $115 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $13 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $13 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $820 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $820 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $56 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $56 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $55 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $19 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $19 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $69 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $69 |
| 2d ago | 0x59ba…f6a2Mid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 100¢ | $39 |
| 2d ago | 0x58e8…ff0fMid | Buy | Daniel Michalski | 33¢ | $105 |
| 2d ago | kitopesivanMid | Buy | Daniel Michalski | 33¢ | $103 |
| 2d ago | kitopesivanMid | Buy | Daniel Michalski | 36¢ | $20 |
| 2d ago | kitopesivanMid | Buy | Daniel Michalski | 48¢ | $20 |
| 3d ago | kitopesivanMid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 53¢ | $10 |
| 3d ago | 0x4a0a0b5b5c6c728328e9ee0bd59035f21957ac8fMid | Buy | Rio Noguchi | 54¢ | $253 |
| 4d ago | 0xc2494b32d65DeA3a3A80712589d10bC5733f8a61-1774333132835Top | Buy | Daniel Michalski | 46¢ | $55 |