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Hersonissos 3: Michael Geerts vs Juan Martin

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $8,216·Volume $10·Ends Nov 16, 2026
Price now:Michael Geerts100%Juan Martin0%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 03:01computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Michael Geerts
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$3,521
Smart money entered66¢100¢at 03:01(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 4d(Nov 16, 2026)Liquidity$8,216
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Michael Geerts", with $0 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 66¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$3,521 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 03:01
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d ago0xadc1…c19bTopBuyMichael Geerts99¢$50
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyJuan Martin4.0¢$15
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin12¢$0
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin12¢$0
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$331
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$90
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$33
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$331
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$21
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$10
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$21
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$10
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$9
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$9
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$19
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$15
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$475
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$6
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$0
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellJuan Martin9.0¢$12
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyJuan Martin7.0¢$775
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyJuan Martin7.0¢$775
1d agosentrioMidBuyJuan Martin37¢$0
1d agosentrioMidBuyJuan Martin37¢$1
1d agosentrioMidBuyJuan Martin37¢$1
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyJuan Martin38¢$106
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyJuan Martin38¢$103
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellMichael Geerts59¢$118
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidSellMichael Geerts59¢$118
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyMichael Geerts53¢$15
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyMichael Geerts53¢$15
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyMichael Geerts53¢$11
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyMichael Geerts53¢$11
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyMichael Geerts53¢$16
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyMichael Geerts53¢$16
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyMichael Geerts53¢$64
1d ago0xaf21…d34aMidBuyMichael Geerts53¢$64
1d ago0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846MidBuyJuan Martin37¢$8
1d ago0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846MidBuyJuan Martin37¢$8
1d ago0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846MidBuyMichael Geerts63¢$8
1d ago0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846MidBuyMichael Geerts63¢$8
1d ago0xheavy888MidBuyMichael Geerts66¢$880
1d ago0xheavy888MidBuyMichael Geerts66¢$880
1d ago0xheavy888MidBuyMichael Geerts66¢$6
1d ago0xheavy888MidBuyMichael Geerts66¢$6
1d ago0xheavy888MidBuyMichael Geerts66¢$188
1d ago0xheavy888MidBuyMichael Geerts66¢$188
1d ago0xheavy888MidBuyMichael Geerts66¢$10
2d ago0xheavy888MidBuyMichael Geerts65¢$66
2d ago0xheavy888MidBuyMichael Geerts65¢$66