Orleans: Sebastian Baez vs Daniil Glinka
ActiveLiquidity $14.0K·Volume $202·Ends Nov 16, 2026
Price now:Sebastian Baez100%Daniil Glinka0%
Smart money leans
Sebastian Baez
77% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
77%price77%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,715 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$2,695
72h +$2,695
Smart money entered49¢77¢at 17:27(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy7h agoResolvesin 6d(Nov 16, 2026)Liquidity$14.0K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Sebastian Baez", with $1,715 riding on it.
The price of 77% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 49¢; the price was 77¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,715 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$2,695, +$2,695 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:27
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816Top | Buy | Sebastian Baez | 49¢ | $1,715 |