Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action consisting primarily or exclusively of munitions intercepted before impact will still qualify if directed at Kyiv as set out below; whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if and only if a resolution source reports a qualifying munition, or its debris, landing within the city of Kyiv, or a qualifying munition being intercepted over the city. Reports of a munition or its debris falling in, or striking, any district of Kyiv (e.g., the Mayor of Kyiv’s reports of drone debris falling in a district of the city) will qualify. An interception will qualify only if a resolution source explicitly states that the munition was shot down or destroyed over the city. Reports that a munition is heading toward, in the direction of, or on course for Kyiv, or is flying over Kyiv, air raid alerts, reports that air defense is active or of explosions in Kyiv, and reports of interceptions on the approaches to Kyiv will not qualify on their own. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. A qualifying military action takes place on the date (Kyiv time) on which a munition lands or is intercepted, not the date on which it is launched. Each landing or interception counts separately, so an attack that continues past midnight may count toward both dates. If the resolution sources do not make clear when a landing or interception occurred, it counts toward the date on which a resolution source first reported it. Totals covering a period that spans more than one date (e.g., overnight counts of drones launched or shot down) will not establish the date of any landing or interception and will not be treated as the first report of one. Unless a qualifying military action has already been established by a consensus of information available from the resolution sources, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM Kyiv time on the third calendar date following the specified date. If multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a potentially qualifying incident at that time, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and Ukraine, including the Mayor of Kyiv, the Kyiv City Military Administration, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, and the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting. Where reporting relays or paraphrases an official statement, the original wording of that statement will be used. Reports that only track munitions moving toward, in the direction of, on course for, or over Kyiv, including the Air Force’s real-time movement updates, will not on their own establish that a military action was directed at Kyiv.